Reference Translation for Exercise 2 (for Thursday Class)

At the beginning of 2005, the cyclical recovery in the world economy was reaching its zenith; growth of gross world product (GWP) increased by 4 per cent in 2004, compared to 2.8 per cent in 2003 and a forecast of 3.25 per cent for 2005. Growth in the developing countries was the fastest for more than two decades, while output in the remaining economies in transition continued to increase more rapidly than in the other major country groups.

在2005年年初，全球經濟景氣的恢復漸次達到循環的巔峰，全球生產毛額〈總值〉的成長與2003年的百分之2.8及2005年的預測值百分之3.25相較，2004年增加了4個百分點。其中，以開發中國家的成長率最高，且此一高成長已維持了二十多年，在這同時，全球過渡性經濟體的產出，與其他主要國家相較，也呈現持續快速的成長。

The world economy has considerable momentum entering 2005 and most determinants of the short-term prospects remain positive, with only a modest deceleration anticipated for 2005. The higher oil price has already slowed global growth somewhat and policy measures intended to avert overheating will reduce it further, including in the United States and China, the principle engines for the global economy at present. The growth of international trade will slow accordingly and the upward movement in the prices of oil and several other commodities is unlikely to continue, reducing that stimulus to many developing countries. The expected upward drift in interest rates will also cause growth to ease in many countries.

進入2005年後，世界經濟的發展充滿了強大的活力，各項短期景氣指標也都持續呈現正性指數〈顯示樂觀〉，但是，我們預測，在2005年可能出現某些景氣降溫。高油價是造成全球經濟成長趨緩的主要因素，此外，美國、中國這些主要經濟體預防景氣過熱的政策操作，也是造成上述成長趨緩的重要因素。國際貿易活動會因而趨緩，然而，由於高油價及高原物料價格，妨害開發中國家的成長速度，將受到開發中國家的強烈抗議，預料原油與原物料價格將不會持續上揚 。同時，我們判斷，全球利率將上升，這也是造成未來許多國家經濟成長趨緩的另一原因。