Group Translation Exercise 2 -- economic document

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2007

After a solid and broad-based growth for three consecutive years, the world economy is expected to decelerate in 2007, mainly dragged by a slowdown of the United States. Growth in Europe and Japan, meanwhile, will not be sufficient for these economies to act as locomotives of global growth. The outlook remains mostly positive for developing countries, but a degree of moderation is also expected. Sustained high growth in China, India and a few other major emerging economies seems to have engendered synergy among developing countries so that growth in this group is more endogenous. However, a large number of developing countries remain highly vulnerable to the vicissitudes of commodity prices and the volatility of international financial markets. The report highlights the need for greater employment growth, which has not kept pace with output growth. The global economic outlook also encompasses a number of important downside risks: bursts in the housing bubbles in a number of countries, uncertainties in oil prices and mounting global imbalances. We call for international macroeconomic policy coordination in order to facilitate an orderly adjustment of global imbalances.

For your reference:

联合国1月10日发布《2007年世界经济形势与展望》报告，预测今年世界经济增长将减缓，但发展中国家的经济增长仍将保持强劲势头。联合国的这份年度报告说，世界经济在经历了三年历史性的强劲而普遍的增长之后，预计在2007年将减速，世界总产出增长率预计将从2005年的4.0%和2006年的约3.8％，下降到2007年的3.2％。

　根据联合国这份报告，美国房地产市场的减弱是世界经济增长减速的主要原因。美国房地产繁荣的降温预计将降低消费者的需求，导致美国经济增长率在2007年将减弱到2.2%。日本与欧洲的经济复苏不足以强劲到取代美国成为世界经济增长的动力。但是联合国的报告同时也指出，美国公司财务状况是健康的，仍有放松银根的空间，因此，目前的经济形势不至于导致衰退。

　报告指出，尽管2006年全球经济强劲增长，但是这种情况未导致失业率的大幅度削减。特别是在发展中国家，尽管2006年期间经济出现罕见的巨大发展，但就业率并不乐观。发展中国家和转型经济国家平均增长率分别达到6.5%和7.2%。2007年预计发展中国家的增长率仍会强劲，尽管稍微趋缓，发展中国家为5.9%，而转型经济国家为6.5%。

　报告指出，东亚经济将继续带领发展中国家经济增长的势头，维持2006年7.6%的增长率。中国的经济增长率超过10%。以印度带领的南亚，2006年的经济增长率为6.7%强。预计未来的增长势头仍很强劲，东亚经济将以平均7.0%的增长率持续扩张，而南亚在2007年将稍有放慢。

　报告指出，最不发达国家2006年平均增长率为7%，2007年同样仍将保持强劲发展势头，特别是石油生产国和其他矿物出口国，由于得益于高涨的商品价格更是如此。欧洲2006年的表现超过了预期，2007年这些国家的经济增长率预计将放慢到2%左右。日本经济2006年发展呈现强劲势头，2007年其经济增长率将放慢到2%以下。

　报告指出，2006年美国经常账户赤字增加到接近9000亿美元，美国经济增长减缓的主要原因是其房地产行业的衰退，美国房地产价格下降如果失控，将导致进口减少，影响中国经济；同时无序调整的风险仍然存在。联合国经济事务部官员洪平凡认为，美国经济增长率预计在2007年将减弱到2.2%，是世界经济增长减速的主要原因；但发展中国家和转型经济国家仍将在2007年保持较高的增长水平。


About "global imbalances":

What are the Global Imbalances? I.J. Macfarlane Governor Talk to Economic Society of Australia Dinner Melbourne - 28 September 2005

1. Introduction

I have given a number of speeches to the Economic Society over the years, and it is a pleasure to be doing so again tonight. The last time I gave the closing address to the Conference of Economists was in 1997 in Hobart. The subject I want to speak about tonight is one which has loomed particularly large in international macro-economic discussion in the period since then. I refer to the subject of global imbalances in international payments.

Most of the discussion, at least until quite recently, focussed on the large US current account deficit and questioned its sustainability and the risks it posed to the world economy. Tonight I would like to approach the subject of global payments imbalances from a broader perspective. In doing so, the focus of attention is shifted towards Asia, recognition is given to the weakness of Europe, and the United States is cast into an accommodating role, rather than an initiating one.